Edge vs coin flip
Current hit rate
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A fair coin at 1X2 would hit ~33%. Anything consistently above that with
proper staking translates into long-term edge.
Live model performance · Premier League by default
Track how WinMatic is performing in the wild.
This page shows how the model has been doing on recent fixtures: accuracy, sample size, and how performance changes across different time windows. Switch league and window to stress-test the engine.
League
Evaluation window
Sample depth
Matches in window
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Larger windows are smoother, shorter windows react faster to form swings and
regime changes in a league.
Sharpness
Log loss (lower is better)
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Measures how well-calibrated the probabilities are, not just how often the
model picks the right side.
Accuracy across time windows
Comparing hit rates over 14, 30, 60 and 120-day windows for the selected league.
Waiting for API data to draw the progress curve…
Model hit-rate by days window